Understanding our risks

Research-intensive universities have long been acknowledged as experimental by nature and a dynamic enterprise like the University of Edinburgh must take proportionate risks in pursuit of its evolving objectives. We have a mature approach to risk management, articulating our objectives and what might prevent or promote their achievement, which we consider together with possible unintended consequences in our planning and decision-making. This approach increases the probability of successful outcomes, while protecting the values, reputation and sustainability of the University.

Risk management 

The University aims to minimise its exposure to reputational, compliance and financial risk, while recognising that controlled risk-taking enables the University to take advantage of opportunities in the pursuit of research, education, knowledge exchange and innovation. This dynamic is detailed in our Risk Appetite Statement.

More information: Risk Management Policy and Risk Appetite Statement

Process 

The University operates a process for the identification, evaluation and management of risks at the Local (School and Departmental), Operational (College, Professional Services Group, and Major Programme) and Strategic (University) levels. These strategic risks are selected based on several considerations including their relationship to our strategic objectives and the United Nations Sustainable Development Goals, rating of likelihood and impact, their proximity to our stated appetite and the extent to which they may be representative of similar risks across the University.

Strategic risks are recorded in the University Risk Register, where they are monitored and reviewed by the Risk Management Committee (RMC) throughout the year. The RMC tracks the implementation of risk management strategies, informs the University Executive and reports the Committee's findings to the University Court's Audit and Risk Committee and, through it, the governing body, the University Court, itself.

External benchmarking and horizon scanning help us consider emerging risks from across higher education, the wider public sector, and globally. Internal Audit supports this process and undertakes reviews of key risk areas and the risk management process according to a rolling audit plan.

More information: Audit and Risk Committee

Our Risks 

The higher education sector in the UK is facing well-documented risks – even more pronounced now than in the last few years with a challenging existing funding environment, exacerbated by falling international postgraduate student demand to study in the UK. In turn, this introduces risk to our capacity to invest in capital and other substantial programmes aligned to the University’s mission and intended to support long-term financial sustainability. Our sector, like others, remains a target for international and domestic cyber-crime, something which has to be addressed in the context of our strategic imperative to remain globally networked with key partners and influential on the academic world stage. Our international profile – encompassing education, research, innovation and the pursuit of our social and civic commitments – is at the core of our mission and geopolitical changes introduce volatility to this.

Student experience, including capacity to provide wellbeing support, continues to be a key thematic discussion for the sector. The University of Edinburgh, like its peers, wrestles with these risks among many. It has been gratifying in 2024/25 to see improvements in a number of student survey results, particularly in those areas where we have focused specific efforts. We remain, however, less well placed than many peers and this remains a key priority.

We have made many improvements in staff experience in the last couple of years, including pay and policy developments. Given our initiatives to improve our financial sustainability, however, we have seen industrial action return locally, and recent ballots for action nationally over pay have also complicated the position. University wide grade scale changes continue to have a positive impact on aspects of our People risks.

Our digital infrastructure replacement project made major advances in the stability and reliability of our IT systems, lowering risks to our digital estate.

Energy prices and material costs remain high, and the cost of maintaining and developing our large and historic estate place stress on our financial sustainability, which we are addressing through better utilisation and some rationalisation of our assets. The projects in buildings affected by Reinforced Autoclaved Aerated Concrete (RAAC) – something many organisations have yet to grapple with - are now substantially complete.

Looking ahead 

The University is presently facing significant financial pressures, including challenges in attracting new international students in an increasingly competitive global market, rising staff and utility costs, the effects of inflation and supply chain disruptions. Additionally, the persistent underfunding of Scottish-domiciled and other UK students, and challenges to the funding model for much of our excellent research, exacerbates these issues. As the growth in our expenditure continues to outpace growth in our income, we are implementing a programme of change to adapt our operating model and ensure long-term financial sustainability. It is gratifying that UK and Scottish Governments are acknowledging these challenges now more than has been evident in recent years and we intend to ensure that the voice of research-intensive, globally competitive institutions is heard as we move into an undoubtedly challenging period ahead.

Polarisation of debate on wider social issues continues as an emerging risk, albeit one we believe we are managing effectively as we remain committed to upholding academic freedom and freedom of expression, including the right to engage in lawful protest.

We express this commitment by facilitating an environment where students and staff can discuss and debate challenging topics free from intimidation and undue disruption, challenging as that effort can sometimes be. 2024/25 brought challenges in the form of disrupted graduation ceremonies and other protest and 2025/26 has begun in similar vein, with protest activity related to the conflict in Gaza particularly prominent.

The coming year will see continued focus on maintaining our enviable reputation as a premier world research university as we seek to better define and manage risks to research funding and industrial and international partnerships. We will pursue opportunities in established and emerging fields and through new collaborations, including those which are enshrined in our Regional Innovation Action Plan, developed in conjunction with Scottish Enterprise, City of Edinburgh Council and Innovate UK.

There is no doubt that the higher education landscape faces many risks, but there are also enormous opportunities. We were delighted to be chosen in June 2025 as part of the UK Government’s Spending Review, as the host of a new national Supercomputer. The significant investment represents a huge endorsement of the University and its future as a world-leader in supercomputing and AI, recognising the strength and value of our expertise. The new supercomputer will give UK scientists access to compute power on a world-leading scale, which, in turn, will increase the impact of their research on the world.

Strategic change programmes are critical to our capacity to remain the strong and influential university we have been for the last four centuries. 2025/26 is an important year for us to prosecute our priority projects and we are planning and resourcing this work carefully and with resolve.

We are acutely aware of the challenge posed to an institution with significant education, research, social and civic ambition in a constrained financial environment: we recently approved our Regenerative Sustainability Strategy, which will demand capital and revenue capacity. We are operating in a geopolitical environment characterised by instability and fluidity: a multipolar world with rising nationalism and authoritarianism which influences our global position. There will be risks currently unknown to us and we will work to identify and address these decisively. In monitoring our overall risk environment, we will work hard to ensure that in addressing our financial sustainability challenge, we do not unduly increase other risks we face. Our intent to secure our financial sustainability is more important than it has ever been in order than we can survive – and thrive – into the future.

Strategy 2030 focus areas and core functions: 

Teaching and learning

Risk description: Student experience

Failure to improve student experience.

Supports Strategic KPI 12: Student experience

Risk management: We recognise the significant improvements required in our student satisfaction evidenced by national survey resuIts, which have the potential to damage our reputation, affect student recruitment and retention and ultimately challenge the University's financial health.

Accordingly, we are prioritising student experience in line with the objectives of Strategy 2030 with our targeted strategic programmes and underpinning improvement work.

Our Student Support Model is now in place and is being overseen and monitored via the Student Lifecycle Management Group (SLMG) and Colleges/Schools from September 2024.

We have continued implementation of Assessment and Feedback Principles and Priorities set in academic year 2022/23. The criticality of their implementation is highlighted in the recently approved Learning and Teaching Strategy, owned by Senate Education Committee. Its initial focus has been to monitor assessment and feedback turnaround times and the provision of assessment rubrics. Our revised Assessment and Feedback Strategy Group, reporting to Senate Education Committee, now oversees and supports the implementation of the wider Assessment and Feedback Principles and Priorities.

In-year monitoring of progress continues via School Annual Quality Reports and Internal Periodic Reviews. This improvement work is essential in meeting requirements set by the Quality Assurance Agency as part of our Quality Enhancement and Standards Review (QESR) action plan responding to concerns in this area of student experience.

We are committed to improving student satisfaction as measured through the National Student, Postgraduate Taught Experience and Postgraduate Research Experience Surveys). We will also monitor the success of our work, initially through student feedback via focus groups and internal surveys and against our key performance indicators. While actions underway have promise, we recognise that positive impacts may take time to embed across our whole community. 

People

Risk description: People

People risk linked to failing to achieve strategic commitment to be an employer of choices.

Supports Strategic KPI 5: Staff satisfaction

Risk management: Sectoral, international and local issues have changed the focus of this risk. Already low staff turnover rates have fallen further except where we have taken specific actions to reduce headcount, such as by voluntary severance.

We remain an attractive destination for high-quality staff, which was reinforced by an Internal Audit review. More important is retention and motivation of key staff as we work through what is a challenging time for everyone. Our biennial all-staff engagement survey ran in February 2025 and the overall engagement score increased from 59 per cent to 62 per cent. Our response to survey feedback focuses on implementing change effectively, including consultation with staff and partnership working with our nominated trade unions.

We are committed to creating an environment in which everyone feels safe to participate fully in the life of the University, as demonstrated through our work on Equality, Diversity and Inclusion, and on Academic Freedom.

Benefits and remuneration enhancements in 2024 continue to have a positive impact, with 90 per cent of staff receiving a salary increment at the start of the new financial year. Equalising annual leave for all grades, reducing staff pension contributions, and ongoing improvements to employment policies, have reinforced our position as a leading employer.

We recognise that much remains to do and staff motivation, morale and wellbeing remain at the heart of all discussions about the achievement of our strategic goals. 

Social and Civic Responsibility

Risk description: Social responsibility and sustainability

Failure to meet climate change objectives by 2040.

Supports Strategic KPI 16: Net Zero

Risk management: A strengthened approach to achieving net zero by 2040, with appropriate 5-year carbon budgets covering all three scopes was approved by University Court in April 2025. We remain committed to achieving our 2040 goal and our focus is now on meeting our 2030 and 2035 interim targets.

On those goals, we are currently off-track having for example used 64 per cent of our scope one and two carbon budget from 2018/19 to 2023/24, with only 36 per cent left until 2030/31.

Our emissions consist of three material categories: the things we buy; our travel; and our estate. Our challenges include:

1. A long-term trend of growth on supply chain spend.
2. An increasing post-Covid-19 rebound in international aviation, alongside the increasing importance in international student income (with associated emissions increases).
3. Estate-related revenue and capital requirements, local grid upgrade timescales, and a large and complex estate.

To address these risks, we:

• will launch the “Edinburgh Pathway" supply chain decarbonisation framework, engaging internal buying communities and suppliers while exploring its use as a sector-wide tool to accelerate supply chain decarbonisation.
• have materially strengthened sustainability considerations through procurement systems, processes and culture, and reduced supply chain carbon on individual material procurements and are planning for reduced carbon through a refurbished and consolidated printer fleet.
• have achieved a significant reduction in domestic flights via the sustainable travel policy but with limited sustained impact on international travel. We are currently exploring further levers to build on the sustainable travel policy to avoid a post-Covid-19 international aviation rebound via a sub-committee of the Travel Oversight Group.
• are exploring a revised energy masterplan to reduce estates-based carbon earlier, whilst working to ensure revenue and capital considerations are appropriately planned in as part of standard financial approval processes.

Despite technical and financial challenges, we are making progress but need a step change if we are to achieve our 2030 and 2035 interim targets.

Research

Risk description: Quality and competitiveness of research

Exposes the University to potential loss of research excellence standing, adversely impacting reputation and income.

Supports Strategic KPIs 7: Research activity and 8: Research activity with industry

Risk management: International engagement is crucial to the success and impact of our research. However, the changing geopolitical climate also brings challenges we must respond to in order to ensure our research continues work across borders.

Our international funding portfolio naturally exposes us to decisions taken by overseas governments. In 2024/25, decisions taken in the US, affecting the National Institutes of Health, in particular, had repercussions for our own researchers and critical research programmes.

Colleagues within Edinburgh Research Office and Edinburgh Global are implementing recommendations from the Trusted Research Evaluation Framework via a two-year action plan, overseen by the Dean of Research for the College of Science & Engineering.

Our Due Diligence processes are being reviewed and updated in line with latest guidance. Additionally, the implementation of the Foreign Influence Registration Scheme on 1 July 2025, saw a further tightening of guidance on political interference. We have detailed guidance and support in place for

staff and students in order to protect our capacity to engage internationally compliantly and with confidence.

Research

Risk description: Collaboration with external partners

Exposes University to security-related loss of reputation, revenue, or to legal liability.

Supports Strategic KPIs 7: Research activity and 8: Research activity with industry

Risk management: As a global university, we will see our research having a greater impact as a result of partnership, international reach and investment in emergent disciplines.

Internationalisation, however, can expose the University to risks resulting from competing geopolitical interests. Edinburgh Global and Edinburgh Research Office coordinate the University's response to the changing security and risk landscape across international collaboration. The Trusted Research Evaluation Framework Group (TREFG) coordinates effective implementation of the National Protective Security Authority’s (NPSA) 'Trusted Research Framework' across the University. This is the UK government’s national framework for universities with regard to research security. The group is chaired by the Dean for Research, College of Science and Engineering and includes all key stakeholders from relevant professional services and senior academic leads.

The TREFG meets regularly and has raised awareness of responsible global engagement through messaging to key colleagues and by developing an action plan - shared by colleagues across the University - to implement Trusted Research guidance. Edinburgh Global provides reporting on security risks to the Risk Management Committee, Audit and Risk Committee and to University Court.

Work to decrease this risk exposure will concentrate on improvements to better coordinate the security-related controls and oversight provided by our various offices responsible for international collaboration.

Risk description: Core IT infrastructure

Disruption to basic network services.

Supports Strategic KPI 4: Efficient systems

Risk management: We are pleased to report that Information Services Group has completed a major replacement of core IT infrastructure this year, with the completion of the campus data network replacement programme.

The final remaining action is to decommission fully the old network. On completion of this task, the risk scoring will be reevaluated. Inclusion of core IT infrastructure replacement cycles within the Digital Estate plan will help ensure ongoing refreshment of critical platforms. Continued work on overall University Business Continuity Planning will provide mitigation to core IT Infrastructure platform failures.

Risk description: Information security / data breach 

Compromise of University information.

Supports Strategic KPI 4: Efficient systems

Risk management: Like many organisations inside and outside our sector, the University continues to face a significant level of online risk to our digital services, systems and data that underpin our teaching, research and operational activities. We are aware of the ever-changing scale and nature of this risk and continue to implement improvements to our technology and day-to-day processes to counter them. We continue to identify risks to key data-reliant activities, services and processes, working to reduce the potential impact with resilient business continuity plans in case of a data breach. This risk will remain a key area of focus for the foreseeable future.

Risk description: International student recruitment

Recruitment of international students diverges from our size and shape planning and fee income forecasting

Supports Strategic KPI 2: International student diversity

Risk management: The University is recruiting students in the context of increased global competition, a challenging global economy, changes to UK immigration policy, and concentration of demand from specific domiciles outside the UK and Europe, making us vulnerable to market swings and unfavourable geopolitics. This could impact tuition fee revenue, which would undermine the University's financial sustainability. Academic sustainability would be undermined if international recruitment shortfalls were to make some programmes unviable and/or impeded the research pipeline. Over-reliance on one region/ sector could create vulnerability to foreign influence from particular source countries, with potential academic freedom, freedom of expression, security and data integrity risks.

While across higher education the sector is facing greater risk, the University of Edinburgh has taken measures such as making earlier offers and pursuing our strategic enrolment strategy that have mitigated the risk. We are, as a consequence, in a less vulnerable position than many of our peer institutions but have nonetheless set our intake targets and related income expectations, acknowledging that any growth in year-on-year international intakes is likely to require growth in market share of UK international intakes.

The balance of international student enrolment (measured by the ratio of largest international market to 5th and 10th largest overseas markets), particularly in postgraduate taught, has improved but remains an issue. We continue to work towards an even better integrated, strategic enrolment model, and to deliver international student intakes with acceptable levels of reliance/diversification.

Risk description: Finance

Failure to maintain financial headroom required to pursue strategic priorities and ensure financial sustainability in the face of increasing financial pressures.

Financial Risk Appetite is our EBITDA should be in the range of 7-9 per cent over our five-year plan.

Risk management: The University manages its financial risk by not breaching its risk appetite as described in its financial metrics. A key metric is that our Earnings Before Interest, Tax, Depreciation and Amortisation (EBITDA) should be in the range of 7-9 per cent to remain sustainable.

The University has again achieved an EBITDA marginally below its 7-9 per cent target in the face of significant financial pressure, posed by an increasingly volatile macroeconomic environment, inflationary pressures and an uncertain outlook on international tuition fee income.

To mitigate these risks, the University regularly produces financial stress testing, cash flow forecasting, and performance monitoring embedded within our financial management framework, which provides early warning of emerging risks and supports timely corrective action.

Furthermore, recognising the imperative to maintain financial sustainability and create capacity for future strategic priorities and achieve innovation potential, the University is implementing a comprehensive cost reduction programme.

Financial sustainability measures will be underpinned by robust governance structures and reporting, ensuring alignment with strategic priorities and risk appetite.

Risk description: Estate

The physical estate fails to meet the needs of the University (volume, condition, and accessibility).

Does not directly support a specific Strategic KPI, but is essential in our achievement of many of them, particularly 4, 5, 7, 12, and 16*

Risk management: During 2021/22, the University formulated a new Capital Plan, which was approved by Court in February 2022. This six-year plan covers the period 2021/22 to 2026/27 and:

• is fully aligned with the University's 2030 strategy.
• covers all capital expenditure for the University, including digital and equipment expenditure.
• enables investment in priority projects, including those addressing volume, condition and accessibility requirements.
• is agile and able to respond to unforeseen emerging University capital needs.

In addition, to strengthen the University response to the climate emergency and commitment to 'Zero by 2040', the Director of Estates Net Zero and Carbon Leadership is focusing on the decarbonisation of the physical estate.

The Capital Plan is monitored and reported to the Estates Committee, Policy and Resources Committee and Court through the normal governance cycle.

Given the current financial pressures, there is a risk that without careful management, the combination of limited long-term strategic direction, growth in staff and student numbers in the previous five years, and the potential deferral of capital projects, could collectively impact the University’s ability to sustain a fit-for-purpose estate. If not addressed, these pressures may, over time, lead to building deterioration, increased future costs, and reduced viability of projects critical to supporting the University’s ambitions. A revised vision for the Estate is close to finalisation in 2025/26 and an associated refreshed capital plan will follow, taking account of the need to protect the infrastructure we have and to make the most effective use of the asset base.

*4: Efficient systems. 5: Staff satisfaction. 7: Research activity strategic. 12: Student experience. 16: Net Zero

Risk description: Strategic Change

Scope, pace and complexity of change negatively impacts both project success and staff wellbeing.

Supports Strategic KPIs 4: Efficient Systems, 5: Staff Engagement, 10: Curriculum Transformation and 12: Student Experience

Risk management: Implementation of major change initiatives is challenging for any organisation. The University has identified the requirement to manage and better coordinate the delivery of major strategic programmes, particularly in light of the lessons learned during implementation of a major new HR and Finance system called People and Money.

The external review of People and Money, published in December 2023, made recommendations which are reflected in the evolving approach to planning of Strategic Projects. The University Initiatives Portfolio Board (UIPB) has collective oversight of these projects. With the establishment of the UIPB, oversight of the whole portfolio has been established and prioritisation of initiatives and ongoing assessment forms a core part of that Board’s remit. All strategic projects will be monitored going forward.

Particular attention is being focused on organisational capacity and development, resource management, decision-making and increased engagement during the life of a project.

Understanding variations in practice across the University is important, to ensure appropriate support is in place to enable an effective transition to new ways of working. The current portfolio of projects has been prioritised in order to promote financial sustainability.